What We Actually Know About GEO (And What Nobody Knows Yet)

Most of what's written about GEO is either hype (“SEO is dead!”) or fear (“you're already too late!”). Both are nonsense. At BurnesSEO we've spent months digging through the actual research — Princeton's GEO study, Semrush's 126-million-prompt AI Visibility Index, Ahrefs' citation data, Shopify's commerce numbers, and the BrightonSEO 2026 talks — and testing it against real businesses. This article is the honest version: what's proven, what's educated guesswork, and what nobody on earth knows yet.

No agency fluff. Let’s go.

What's proven (you can bank on this)

AI search traffic is real money. This isn’t a trend piece — it’s measured, by companies with no reason to agree with each other.

Why do these visitors convert so well? Because the AI already did their research. More than half of AI-referred shoppers land directly on a product or service page, pre-sold. The AI answered their questions; they arrived ready to buy.

What AI actually cites

Five independent research groups keep landing on the same list. AI engines prefer content that:

1. Answers the question immediately — the direct answer in the first two sentences under each heading, detail afterwards.
2. Contains real numbers with named sources — statistics and citations were the top visibility boosters in Princeton’s GEO research.
3. Quotes named experts — a real person with a real title beats anonymous copy.
4. Is fresh — AI citations drop sharply for content older than about three months. That “SEO tips” post from 2023 is invisible.
5. Is structured for machines — clear headings, FAQ sections, comparison tables, and schema markup (the code that tells AI exactly who you are, where you operate and what you do).

One finding that surprised us: AI doesn’t read your page — it reads your paragraphs. Each paragraph gets judged on its own. If a paragraph only makes sense in context, AI can’t use it. Write every paragraph so it could stand alone.

Your reputation off your website counts as much as your website

AI learns who to recommend from the whole internet, not just your site. The proven off-site signals:

• A 100% complete Google Business Profile with weekly activity — AI Overviews leans heavily on it for “best X near me” questions. Our Google Business Profile guide walks through every field.
• Fifty or more Google reviews that mention specific services and suburbs — that’s the exact language AI matches against real questions.
• Consistent name, address and phone across every directory. Mismatches make AI unsure you’re you.
• Mentions in “best of” lists and directories — even without links. When someone asks ChatGPT for the best event company in Joburg, it cites listicles, not homepages.

Want to see how your business scores on all of this? Check your AI Visibility Score — 12 questions, two minutes, and you get your fix-list ranked by impact.

What's educated guesswork (be careful who you believe)

The famous claim that citations boost AI visibility “by 40%” comes from controlled experiments, not the live web — a 2026 academic review confirmed the ranking of tactics holds, but the exact percentages don’t transfer. Anyone promising you “X% more AI visibility” is selling snake oil.

AI citation patterns are also volatile. Reddit went from appearing in 60% of ChatGPT answers to 10% within six weeks when OpenAI adjusted its sources. Even the wording of a question changes everything: research by RankShift found that swapping “best” for “leading” in a prompt pulled answers from completely different sources, and mid-sized brands swung by up to 19 percentage points on phrasing alone.

The honest takeaway: do what’s proven, measure monthly, and never assume last quarter’s result holds. GEO knowledge has a shelf life of about three to six months.

What nobody knows yet (including us — and that’s the opportunity)

Nobody publishes South African GEO data. Every study above is American or European. Which SA plumbers, agencies and restaurants does ChatGPT actually recommend, and why? Nobody has published the answer — which is exactly why we’re running those experiments on our own sites first, and publishing what we find.

Nobody fully knows how the engines weight their sources, and the engines themselves change monthly. Anyone claiming to have “the algorithm” for ChatGPT is guessing. What we have are strong, repeatedly-confirmed patterns — which is plenty to act on, as long as you keep measuring. We wrote more on that in how AI search is changing search in South Africa.

Where to start this month

1. Week 1: Make sure AI can read your site (don’t block AI crawlers; add schema markup) and complete your Google Business Profile to 100%.
2. Week 2: Rewrite your five most important pages — answer first, real numbers, an expert quote, an FAQ, and a visible “Updated August 2026” date.
3. Week 3: Ask every happy customer for a review that names the service and the suburb.
4. Week 4: Ask ChatGPT and Gemini about your business. Screenshot the answers. That’s your baseline — and your proof when things improve.

The bottom line

GEO isn’t magic and it isn’t hype. About 80% of it is verified and doable this quarter; the other 20% is moving ground that needs monthly measurement, not promises. That’s exactly how we run it.

Want to know where you stand right now? Take the free AI Visibility Score — 12 questions, two minutes, and you’ll get your personalised fix-list. Or skip the homework and book a free audit — we’ll show you exactly what ChatGPT says about your business today.